Adeed risk in case of rain: some recent results for France
RATTAIRE ; ARON ; BERGEL ; DOUCET ; VIOLETTE
Type de document
COMMUNICATION AVEC ACTES INTERNATIONAL (ACTI)
Langue
anglais
Auteur
RATTAIRE ; ARON ; BERGEL ; DOUCET ; VIOLETTE
Résumé / Abstract
This paper provides some results demonstrating the impact of rain on road safety for France. The risk of injury accident and the added risk in case of rain are estimated for several types of injury accidents which occurred in France for the period 1995-2008. Estimations cover the whole of France, in average and according the category of network and element of the road. These results are relevant as they will contribute to implement specific road safety measures. The risk of injury accident in case of rain is defined as the number of injury accidents per vehicle-kilometre by rainy conditions. The added risk in case of rain is defined as the ratio of the risk of injury accident by rainy conditions divided by the risk of injury accident by no rain. As the number of vehicle kilometres is partly unknown, the rain duration is used in this paper in the place of the number of vehicle-kilometres by rainy conditions. An approximation of the added risk is thus derived. For computing these estimations, two data sources related to injury accidents and rain duration were used: the BAAC (the French Injury Accident File) and Météo-France. In addition, the changes in the added risk in case of rain over the period 1995-2008 are described with the help of time series analysis techniques. The results are commented in relation with more detailed results obtained for the Haute-Normandie region in France, and recommendations for improving the computation method are given. Key-words: time series analysis; road safety; injury accidents; accident risk, added risk, rain.
Editeur
WCTR
