Measuring uncertainty in long-term travel demand forecasting from demographic modelling : Case Study of the Paris and Montreal Metropolitan Areas
ARMOOGUM ; MADRE ; BUSSIERE
Type de document
ARTICLE A COMITE DE LECTURE NON REPERTORIE DANS BDI (ACLN)
Langue
anglais
Auteur
ARMOOGUM ; MADRE ; BUSSIERE
Résumé / Abstract
Uncertainty on traffic forecasts may have an impact on reimbursement scheduling for investment, as well as for scenarios for operating costs. Even the best projections are based on models and assumptions, thus raising the question of their accuracy. Indeed, long term investments are risky and it is important to cope with uncertainty. This paper deals with the uncertainty on a long term projection with an Age-Cohort approach. We used the jackknife technique to estimate confidence intervals and observe that the demographic approach outlines the structural determinants for long term trends of mobility.
Source
IATSS Research, num. 2, pp 9-20 p.
Editeur
INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF TRAFFIC AND SAFETY SCIENCES - IATSS
