A statistical consistency method for evaluating the output from traffic simulation and forecasting models
DANECH-PAJOUH ; SAUVADET
Type de document
COMMUNICATION AVEC ACTES INTERNATIONAL (ACTI)
Langue
anglais
Auteur
DANECH-PAJOUH ; SAUVADET
Résumé / Abstract
A post evaluation of the outputs of a forecasting model involves comparing these outputs with real data. This is only possible as far as the forecasting horizon. This paper proposes a pre-evaluation method whose purpose is to be able to ascribe a level of confidence to predicted values. The approach the authors have used is based on work conducted by meteorologists. The study described in this paper uses the concept of 'ensemble forecasting systems' EFS to conduct a pre-evaluation of traffic forecasts made one year in advance by the French national road information centre, 'bison futé' system. They describe also how to apply this evaluation approach to the output from traffic simulation models.
