Dynamic analysis and forecasting of public transport demand using a combination of demographic and econometric approaches
Type de document
COMMUNICATION AVEC ACTES INTERNATIONAL (ACTI)
Résumé / Abstract
Age-cohort models have proved to be an effective means of investigating long term changes in household car ownership, but it is difficult to apply such models to travel as they cannot take into account changes in the supply and pricing context. On the other hand econometric studies have been used to model change in UPT use and estimate its elasticity with respect to transport supply and price. Such studies are frequently experimental and short term and are based on aggregate indicators which either ignore changes in population structure or do not consider them in sufficient detail. Via GTI, INRETS and ERMES have performed a retrospective and forward study of UPT use which attempts to estimate both the effects of population structure (demographic approach) and the effects of supply and price (econometric approach). This study analyzes a panel of 61 provincial urban transport areas from 1975 to 1995.